So Jester over at
Jester's Trek made a
totally not-EVE related post that got me thinking. People joke about "winning EVE" all the time, but an MMO like EVE, by it's very nature, cannot and perhaps should not be won - otherwise what would be the point of keeping it open once someone has "won EVE?" So, in the spirit of my previous job as an intelligence analyst (something that has led to some frustration as I try and find a decent - read, preferably non-burger-flipping - job in an already crappy job market; few companies have a use for an intelligence analyst, dammit) I decided to take Jester's idea and run with it, and try and predict the future.
So, how could the Goonswarm "win EVE?" As Jester pointed out, the victory conditions in the Civilization games (and I echo his comment about "go play them now!") translate pretty well into how anyone could "win" our serious game of internet spaceships. But, if perhaps taken to their logical extreme, these "victory conditions" would also make EVE a less fun, and less sustainable, version of itself, meaning that someone would have to take action to breathe new life into the metagame.
Military Victory
In this scenario, the GSF bloats itself out to hold sovereignty over the vast majority, if not all, of null-sec, leaving perhaps only a few pockets of NPC null-sec where they don't exercise effective sovereignty. There are a few issues with this scenario. One, I don't think it's truly feasible. Even if, say, half of the sov-holding alliances were to ally themselves under the banner of the Swarm, that still leaves enough others to make a stand somewhere. Moreover, I would contend that the Goons are a polarizing enough group that any such bid for an outright "military victory" would, almost instantly, solidify a decent-sized opposition bloc to prevent any such victory from occurring in the first place.
In addition, I suspect that The Mittani, being who he is, either has no real plans in making such an effort to "conquer the universe," or would, if such a thing seemed likely to happen on its own, would immediately take steps from resetting relations with allies to reorganizing the GSF in such a way to provide an enemy able to provide the much-touted "good fight" that most EVE sov-space members desire.
Diplomatic Victory
Similar to the Military Victory scenario, in this one instead of simply taking soveriegnty by force of arms, the GSF extends alliances and vassals through sov space, giving them
effective control over a large enough portion to make them masters of nullsec. Again, this isn't really feasible, given the prevalence of espionage to prevent such a thing from happening quietly, as well as, again, the polarization of the GSF and the inevitable resistance to such attempts for Goon control.
Again, I suspect The Mittani would take steps to curtail his own chances for such a victory, given that either a military or diplomatic victory would in fact mean that, like Alexander the Great, he would have no new lands to conquer. Or, in more EVE-ish terms, there would be a lack of good fights.
Cultural Victory

Now we get into the interesting bits. An argument could be made, and one that I would tend to agree with, that the Goons are moving toward - if not already at - the stage of controlling the culture of EVE Online. In a comment on Jester's blog entry, The Mittani himself
commented that "EVE, like all MMOs, has been a misogynistic hellhole for years and that has nothing to do with Goonswarm." While he is certianly entitled to his opinion, I think he's trying to dodge the issue. As the most prominent player organization in the game, the Goons, whether they like it or not, are at least somewhat responsible for shaping the perception of EVE as a game, and also how it's players act. While I grant that a good portion of the playerbase as a whole can be considered poster children for
online disinhibition effect, regardless of if they're Goons or not, the prevalence of the Goons, especially on the forums, and their attitudes can - and I would surmise they do - adjust the attitudes of other players in the game, partly out of peer pressure, partly out of a desire so as to not appear weak, and partly as a means of social camouflage.
Economic Victory
OTEC. 'Nuff said.
Okay, I'll say a little more. Of all the victory conditions, this is perhaps the only one I would expect CCP to take steps to ameliorate. Technetium, given that it is an essential element (pardon the pun) for all Tech 2 production, is the crude oil of EVE Online. The Mittani knows this, and this is why he got OTEC started, and one of the reasons why he orchestrated Burn Jita and supports Hulkageddon so strongly - all of that market chaos can only cause the demand for technetium to skyrocket, leading directly to more money into the coffers of OTEC's member alliances.
But it also places a dangerous weapon in the hands of the Goons. Should they so desire, they would have the capability now to cut the technetium supply on the open market down however they wish, and for whatever reason they wish, from simply wanting to drive the price upward even more, choking off the supply for an enemy, making it harder for them to build more ships and equipment, or simply to watch the world markets burn. It is a blade pressed against the throat of anyone that wants to strike against an OTEC member, and indeed against the rest of EVE entire.
So what could happen, and what has been rumored to be happening for years, to be fair about it, is that CCP could introduce a new source of technetium into the game. Ring mining is a popular speculative source at this point, but it could be as easy as seeding new wormhole systems - or known-space systems? - into the game with technetium sources in them. I doubt that there would be a conversion of extant moons to become technetium sources, though technically it would be the easiest change to make. I'm not certain of what course CCP would take; Lord knows I'm not as smart as CCP Dr.Eyjog, and he'd probably have a lot to do with the decision-making process here. If CCP were to do anything, my suspicion is that they would add technetium sources in ring mining, and deliberately do so outside of OTEC space. More likely, however, is CCP would maintain their
laissez-faire market policies and simply let The Mittani and his OTEC partners do what they will.
Space Victory
Let's face it, if the Goons can lock down Jita for a weekend, they can do it any time they want, wherever they want. Add in how much The Mittani supports Hulkageddon... I think they have this one.
The Little Red Button
I didn't touch on this before, partly because I don't believe it's something that would realistically happen, and partly because it's not something that anyone has ever really wanted to consider in an MMO.
If Goonswarm became somehow unassailable - they were big enough nobody else could realistically hope to take them on, they had established their control of the technetium bottleneck and used it ruthlessly against their enemies and those that simply annoyed them, and so on, CCP does have what amounts to the ultimate weapon in the game. The reset button.
Resetting an MMO - any MMO - is not something that one considers lightly. Insofar as I can determine via some Google searching, the complete and deliberate wipe of all player data, sending everyone back to the start point and putting everyone on an even level again, is not something that's ever been done. But, as CCP has demonstrated before, just because nobody has done it before is not in and of itself a reason to dismiss something. And given their "Fearless" corporate mentality, I don't think CCP would shy from reaching for the proverbial nuclear option if they felt they had no other choice.
Note the emphasis in the last sentence, there.
While wiping out all characters, alliances, assets, and so forth in the game would certainly have the effect of breaking open pretty much every and any barrier in the game, and would possibly win some player support, especially for newer players that consider themselves dwarves in a world of giants, the vast majority of the playerbase would revolt at such a step, possibly to the point of finally walking away from the game were the button actually pushed. And to be fair, I can see the logic on both sides. Yes, especially for a newer player who wouldn't lose as much, the notion of having everyone start over again, on the same level playing field, would be exciting. It would be almost like stepping back in time before the giants of the game became those giants, possibly giving you the opportunity to interact with them as an equal and possibly even get your foot in the door of a rebuilding alliance.
But for an experienced player, with millions of SP, billions of ISK, ships scattered all over the cluster, and a history invested in the game, what would be the upside for you? Sure, you would have the benefit of your experience as a player to guide you through the early steps of the game - Lord knows all of us made mistakes in our n00b days that we'd love to go back and correct. But that'd be about it. You'd still have to spend however many years you'd invested into the game rebuilding your fortune, your fleet, and more importantly your character's skills. Few people would want to go through that again, I'd expect.
And yet, if the Swarm had that much of a stranglehold on the game, what other steps could a developer take that wouldn't seem unfair to one side or another?
Obligatory Sheet Anchor
This is just a very off the cuff prediction set. My reasoning makes sense to me, but it may not be at all accurate to how the parties involved would actually act, especially given that I'm not in any way a part of said parties. I would make some sort of Magic 8-Ball joke here, but honestly I didn't even do that much. This is just my thought process from last night and this morning.